The Weaponization of Water Hydro - Politics and Conflict Prospects in South Asia (2019–2025)

Abstract

The strategic significance of water in South Asia has escalated in recent years, transforming rivers into instruments of power and contestation. This study explores the phenomenon of the weaponization of water between 2019 and 2025, with particular focus on the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and the broader hydro-political tensions between India, Pakistan, China, and downstream states. The paper examines how climate change, rapid population growth, and infrastructural development projects have intensified competition over transboundary rivers. India’s dam construction on the western rivers, coupled with its political rhetoric on revoking or manipulating the IWT, has heightened Pakistan’s water insecurity and fueled diplomatic strains. Similarly, China’s control over the Brahmaputra headwaters presents emerging vulnerabilities for both India and Bangladesh. Using a mixed-method approach grounded in realism and hydro-politics theory, the research argues that water is no longer merely a resource but a strategic tool leveraged in coercive diplomacy. Findings suggest that while the IWT has provided a degree of stability, its fragility in the face of environmental change and geopolitical rivalries underscores the urgent need for confidence-building measures, multilateral cooperation, and adaptive treaty frameworks. The study contributes to international relations by situating water as a critical non-traditional security issue in South Asia, highlighting its role in shaping future conflict prospects, regional stability, and state behavior.