Water Security as a Strategic Lever: Indus Waters Treaty, China, and Regional Risk

Abstract

This paper examines the role of water security as a strategic instrument in South Asia by connecting the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the role of China in the region, and the routes of escalation danger. The study incorporates a qualitative case-study study design based on comparative episodes and process tracing using a compilation of treaty/legal documents, official statements, adjudication records, discourses of the elite media, and contextual hydro-climate indicators. It is found that leverage is not often achieved by using physical denial of water flows, but rather, by legal-institutional gambles, infrastructure signalling, information/narrative politics, which includes data-opacity assertions and retaliative rhetoric. The findings point to a restricting strain trade-off: treaty arrangements may help to curb the short-term escalation but they may also create institutional strain when the legitimacy is in dispute. It seems that China is affecting the perceptions of threats indirectly through upstream ambiguity and China-India competition. The article suggests a multi-pathway leverage model and a formulated risk matrix to facilitate preventative water diplomacy and regional stability.

Keywords: Water security; Indus Waters Treaty; Securitization; Hydro-diplomacy; China–India rivalry; Strategic leverage; Escalation risk