Beyond 1951 Refugee Convention: Legal Gaps, Economic Implications and Regional Pathways for Climate Displaced Persons in Conflict Zones

Abstract

The 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol established the foundational framework for international refugee protection, yet they address only persecution on specific grounds and do not encompass displacement driven primarily by climate change. In conflict-affected regions, climate-induced hazards such as prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, desertification, and resource scarcity act as threat multipliers, exacerbating instability, livelihood collapse, and violence. This creates complex "climate-conflict" displacement that leaves millions without adequate legal safeguards, as affected individuals often cannot demonstrate individualized persecution required under the Convention. This article examines the critical protection gaps for climate-displaced persons in fragile settings, with particular attention to overlapping crises in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Through doctrinal analysis of international refugee and human rights law, alongside case studies, it highlights how current frameworks fall short while exploring promising avenues such as broader regional refugee definitions (e.g., the 1969 OAU Convention), human rights-based non-refoulement principles, and complementary protection mechanisms. The research argues for normative advancements beyond the 1951 Convention, including new dedicated instruments or protocols, strengthened institutional mandates for bodies like UNHCR, and integrated policies that link climate adaptation, conflict resolution, and durable solutions. By addressing these intersections, the study contributes to a more inclusive global migration governance system capable of upholding human rights amid the escalating realities of the climate crisis in volatile regions.