Globalization, Entrepreneurship, and Emerging Economy

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of globalization on entrepreneurial perceptions among young urban professionals in China, focusing on the 2024-2025 period marked by US-China trade tensions, tariff hikes on electric vehicles and batteries, and the "dual circulation" strategy. Leveraging the theory of planned behavior, we analyze how perceived opportunities, skills, and fear of failure are shaped by globalization, moderated by economic development stages, and mediated by policy uncertainty, using a multi-level dataset of 7,500 individuals across 31 provinces. Hierarchical linear modeling reveals a significant negative effect of globalization on opportunities, mitigated in high-GDP provinces. Difference-in-differences estimates a 0.18-unit decline in opportunities in tariff-exposed sectors post-2024, while structural equation modeling indicates uncertainty mediates 25% of this impact. Instrumental variable robustness checks confirm causality. The findings highlight China’s unique regional resilience and uncertainty-driven challenges, offering novel insights into de-globalization’s microeconomic effects. Policy recommendations include targeted subsidies, uncertainty reduction, and network support to sustain entrepreneurial vitality in this emerging economy.